Allegiance in Social Conflict: Modeling the Impact of Loyalty Trials on Political Behavior
How do authorities generate behavioral conformity in conflict settings? From rebel groups to
nation-states, political actors conduct loyalty trials
to identify enemy-collaborators in areas under
their control, with consequences ranging from harassment and ostracism to imprisonment, torture, or
death. Contemporary examples include the sweeping raids in France following the 2015 Paris attack,
Chinese counter-terrorism programs targeting Uyghurs for political disloyalty, and the recruitment of
Palestinians for services tantamount to defection by Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. In
each instance, individuals are labeled as defectors
for behavior that ostensibly demonstrates
allegiance to rival authorities, such as religious rituals or befriending ethnic others. Yet, while
labeling can increase conformity, it also generates unintended cascades of defection. We explore the
conditions under which one or the other outcome prevails using a computational model informed
by data collected from archives and interviews in the German Democratic Republic and Palestine.
We find that when defection is narrowly labeled, the under-identification of collaborators increases
conformity, whereas when defection is broadly labeled, the over-identification of collaborators fuels
resistance to group goals. This while loyalty trials effectively generate short-term conformity with
group goals, they increase defection in the long run—radicalizing both conformers and defectors in
the process.
Opening the Black Box
of Household Behavior: Evidence-Driven Models of Acute Malnutrition in Kenya
We develop an evidence-driven computational model to explore how variation in household
behavior influences child acute malnutrition in times of crisis. We seed the model with
spatially and temporally disaggregated household-level nutrition information, calibrate the
parameters to fit the empirical reality using GIS, and validate the model against observed
acute malnutrition prevalence in West Pokot county, Kenya. We use the validated model to
(i) estimate acute malnutrition prevalence rates with a 4-month prediction horizon in West
Pokot and the neighboring Turkana county; and (ii) conduct counterfactual experiments
to underscore the salience of household adaptive capacity, as well as the notion that
adaption is less effective for economic vis à vis climate shocks. Our analysis contributes to
famine early warning by making explicit the link between patterns of household behavior and
vulnerability in the short- to medium-term, effectively underscoring the need for evidence-
driven policy decisions.
Social Identification in Civil War
What determines who people side with and fight against in civil wars?
Existing explanations conceive of identity and utility considerations as competing logics.
We propose a shift from the strict dichotomy that has dominated theories of alliance formation,
by advancing a model in which decisions can be driven by identity-based considerations,
rational considerations, or some mix-of the two.
The evidence-driven model is calibrated using original micro-level conflict data,
and validated with case studies of two regions in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Evidence-Driven Computational Modeling
An evidence-driven computational modeling (EDM) framework rests on three methodological pillars:
agent-based computational modeling (ABM), empirical contextualization using geographical information systems (GIS), and empirical validation.
The approach is especially useful in issue areas where there is an abundance of theoretical knowledge,
outcomes are driven by complex interactions between numerous factors,
and it is possible to leverage empirical data to seed or validate the model.
Ideally, EDM provide evidence-driven results that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative policy options in a systematic and transparent manner.
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The Morphology of Urban Conflict
During the cold war, civil conflict had a rural bent,
which research mirrored
[1].
Urban environments were traditionally viewed as undermining identifications that provide an
impetus for fighting
[2],
too well protected as the home bases of elites and even prohibitive to rebel operations
[3].
As the world population grows and increasingly clusters in urban spaces
[4],
we argue that conflict will be redirected — whether purposefully or unintentionally — to cities.
Results from several recent studies provide substantial support for a nascent urban propensity towards conflict
— an emerging urban shift
.
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